Five points clear, a stellar midfield, in-form striker and a settled defence – this is the season to be cheerful for Gunners’ fans. But ask pretty much any of them and they’ll firmly shake their head when asked the question ‘So Arsenal, going to win the league this season?’ And that pessimism is backed up by the bookies.
There are two main external reasons for all this doom and gloom, spelled C-H-E-L-S-E-A and M-A-N C-I-T-Y respectively. And there’s an even larger internal one – Arsenal haven’t looked like a title-winning side since Patrick Vieira loped off into the sunset and they don’t look like one now.
Why? Here’s five reasons.
Injuries
Ah…the Arsenal defence. It’s good this season, thanks to the partnership between Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker at its heart. Throw in the under-rated and understated Kieran Gibbs and a resurgent Bacary Sagna and you’ve got a back four that’s finally working as a unit.
Koscielny has put in some excellent performances for Arsenal over the last couple of years. Just never many in a row. He’s consistent now and in Mertesacker he has a colleague who has finally found his feet in the Premiership, ie he’s stayed on them rather than frequently introducing his backside to the turf as in previous seasons.
But if either of them spend any kind of stretch on the treatment table, their replacements are not made of inspiring stuff.
Thomas Vermaelen used to be The One. Now he’s second choice and second-rate – the cruel result of too many injuries and a catastrophic dip in confidence.
And then there’s..erm, er, Sagna filling in? Or Isaac Hayden? Eighteen years old and unproven, he’s a boy for the future, not a man to slot seamlessly into a well-drilled unit.
When – not if, but when – either of the first choice centre halves gets injured, Arsenal’s defence will be as confused and exposed as they’ve been for many a long year.
More Injuries
Olivier Giroud – man mountain with a deft touch, scorer of headers and tap-ins, one-on-ones and dramatic left foot curlers. He’s the fulcrum of the Arsenal attack, with the strength to hold the ball up and just enough pace to get round the back.
He’s made Arsenal’s previously one-dimensional attack of ‘pass the ball into the net or nothing’ into a 3D offensive goalarama involving team goals, offside-bustng breaks and, finally, crosses into the box.
And if he gets injured…oh dear.
There’s Theo. When he’s fit. Pace galore but no more crosses or hold-up play.
And then there’s Lucas Podolski. When he’s fit. Best out wide and not the most consistent of performers.
And then there’s Nicklas Bendtner. The poor man’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic. A legend in his own head, a busted flush everywhere else.
Giroud had a perfectly decent first season in the Premiership and is enjoying a cracking second one.
He gives Arsenal options, he gives Arsenal goals. Without him, both of these things could dry up speedier than a sponge in the Sahara.
Midweek Misery
Arsenal’s Champions League group is a thing of horror. It’s tougher than a cheap steak and Arsenal’s home defeat to Borussia Dortmund was just as unpalatable.
A brilliant win away in Dortmund has left a much nicer taste – and led to a surprising claim by the German’s manager – but their chances of making the knock-out stages are still not guaranteed, even if they beat group whipping boys Marseille at The Emirates next up.
A third-paced finish would leave the Gunners in a real mess. They’d have to play in the Europa League for starters, so fixture congestion would continue but for less glory and even less money.
And the effect on the squad’s confidence cannot be overstated.
The last time the Gunners failed to make the last 16, Tony Blair was still in power, people had MySpace pages and Jimmy Savile was a weird but harmless national treasure.
Exit at the group stages this season will undo all of the feel-good factor that Mesut Ozil’s signing created. The players will believe in themselves, and the club, that little bit less. And that’s all it will take for the nasty big boys at Chelsea, Man City et al to bully their way past the Gunners through winter and into the spring.
A Shattered Window
What a difference one signing makes.
One minute, Wenger’s insistence on not buying anyone costing more than a couple of packets of Pickled Onion Monster Munch was consigning the Gunners to another season competing for fourth place, the next Ozil had arrived!
Suddenly, Arsenal were a team to be reckoned with, not least among the players themselves.
Their mix of graft and goals in midfield is the most balanced in the league, so no need for any January additions there.
But United will be spending this New Year. Man City and Chelsea might well dip into their owners’ deep, deep pockets too.
And Wenger must react to all of that.
The squad is, at the very least, two defenders and another target man away from looking properly well-rounded.
The manager has been surprisingly bold in the January window recently, albeit with more than a whiff of panic about his dealings.
He needs to be bold again. And he needs to stop buying midfielders and teenage French-based strikers once and for all.
Think Small, Lose Big
The first-day aberration against Villa aside, Arsenal’s rare defeats this season have come against The Big Boys.
Chelsea in the Insert Sponsor Here League Cup and, rather more worryingly, Dortmund in the Champions League, had that ‘same old same old’ feel about them – Arsenal going well until they faced a truly top team.
There are two ways of looking at the 2-0 victory over Liverpool. It was either confirmation that Arsenal can now really mix it with a top four side or confirmation that Liverpool aren’t going to be a top four side for much longer.
And the win at Dortmund could be seen as evidence of the Germans’ decline as much as Arsenal’s improvement.
The upcoming games against United, City and Chelsea will shape Arsenal’s season, just as they always do.
Still, five points clear, a stellar midfield, in-form striker and a settled defence…you never know.